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YEMEN: IS THE WAR NEARING AN END?
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The MED This
Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed comments on the MENA
region’s most significant issues and trends. Today we turn the spotlight on
Yemen, where a nationwide truce serves as the backdrop for the inauguration of
a new presidential council tasked with managing the country and leading the
peace efforts with the Houthis.
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Yemen has a new
Presidential Leadership Council. On April 7th, the country's exiled
President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi formally stepped down and delegated his powers.
Twelve days later, the eight-member council took office after a rare Parliamentary
session in the interim capital of Aden. Under the leadership of the Yemeni
veteran and politician Rashad Al-Alimi, the presidential council is expected to
run the country for a transitional period and address Yemen's thorniest issues.
Together with crumbling public services and a falling currency, the council
will be responsible for finding a solution to the ongoing violence and holding
talks with the Iran-backed Houthis (who control the country's northwest region and
Sana'a, Yemen's capital). From their side, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates welcomed the transfer of power to the presidential council and
promised a $3 billion aid package to shore up the Yemeni central bank.
Currently, Yemen enjoys a two-month-long truce agreement brokered by the United
Nations and Saudi Arabia. The first one in six years, this ceasefire has raised
hopes for a reduction in violence and an improvement of the country’s terrible
humanitarian crisis, further exacerbated by the global repercussions of the
ongoing crisis in Ukraine. However, the guns have never fallen silent as the
Houthis recently resumed their attacks on Marib, the energy-rich government
stronghold. The rebel group has also repeatedly shown it can attack
infrastructure in Saudi and Emirati territories with drones and ballistic
missiles. While the fighting is not as intense as it used to be, these recent
developments raise questions around the group's intentions and the likelihood of
a permanent ceasefire in the near future. The status quo also tests the Saudi
and Emirati desire to define a common strategy to end a conflict that has
spilled over across the Gulf and turned into a quagmire.
Experts from
the ISPI MED network react to the recent appointment of a new presidential
council in Yemen and the preservation of the national truce.
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A giant umbrella against a common foe
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“The
newly established presidential council in Yemen is an anaemic attempt to unite
anti-Houthi factions based on geographical and political affiliations. Its
major flaw is that it is not a true representation of Yemen's political groups
and regions. However, suppose the members of this council seriously move to
resolve their significant differences and work together to strengthen the
internationally recognized government's (IRG) legitimacy on the ground, such as
by bolstering state institutions and enhancing public service delivery. In that
case, the council may be able to lessen the economic, humanitarian, and
security issues in IRG territories. Nonetheless, Yemen observers should be
cautiously optimistic about the council's capacity to resolve Yemeni hardship,
and more importantly, for the council to agree with the Houthis on the future
of Yemen.”
Raiman al-Hamdani, Research Fellow, Yemen Policy Center
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Aid won’t solve
Yemen’s systematic economic fragilities
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"The
three-billion-dollar aid package pledged by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab
Emirates (UAE) in support of the Central Bank of Yemen could go a long way to
helping ameliorate the ongoing crisis in the country's monetary sector, in
addition to helping boost efforts to combat its ongoing humanitarian crisis.
That being said, in some regards, it's only one more comprehensive step to tackle
the more systematic, structural issues constricting the Yemeni economy. The
country's government continues to lack sufficient revenues to avoid relative
insolvency. Simultaneously, the fallout of the ongoing conflict continues to
strangle the Yemeni private sector, development, and foreign investment. These
challenges are likely to continue to profoundly affect Yemen's economy until
some more comprehensive settlement is reached.”
Adam
Baron, Advisor, Centre for
Humanitarian Dialogue
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The ceasefire will hold as long as the Houthis and
Saudis keep talking
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“The Ansar Allah (Houthi) movement is a secretive and
opaque organization that discourages public debate on public issues. Therefore,
we can only guess their true strategy and real position on the ceasefire.
Overall, there are two factions in the movement, the Jihadists and the pragmatists.
The Jihadists have a millennial mission to fight until they liberate Mecca,
Medina, and Jerusalem. The pragmatists appreciate the need to end the war as
the population under their control has reached its endurance limits. Recent
setbacks and the horrendous loss of life during their two-year campaign to take
over the city of Marib have strengthened the pragmatists and brought them much
closer to the peace table. In addition, ongoing secret negotiations with Saudi
Arabia in Muscat seem to be moving toward a deal: a prerequisite to any serious
Houthi negotiations with their Yemeni adversaries. The ceasefire will hold as
long as the Houthis and Saudis keep talking.”
Abdulghani
al-Iryani, Senior Researcher, Sanaa Center for Strategic
Studies
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Riyadh and
Abu Dhabi: different goals, different needs
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“For Saudi Arabia
and the UAE, this truce pursues two objectives: de-escalating the Houthis’
missile and drone attacks whilst coalescing a real Yemeni anti-Houthi front.
Both these purposes are hard to achieve, although the truce is an encouraging
step. Saudi Arabia will not have a viable military exit strategy from Yemen as
long as the Houthis continue to hit the kingdom and economic targets in the Red
Sea. Border security remains Riyadh’s fundamental goal. In the last decade, the
Saudi leverage in Yemen has reduced: the appointment of the Presidential
Council also aims to strengthen the kingdom’s position in the political
process. For the UAE, the reality is quite the opposite: Abu Dhabi has gained
remarkable influence in Yemen because of the war. The Emiratis are currently willing
to preserve the geostrategic projection they acquired in — and from — Yemen’s coasts and islands. Their leverage is
emphasized by the presence of many UAE-backed military leaders in the
Presidential Council board. While the truce goes into effect, the launch of the
US-led Combined Task Force 153 in the Red Sea, Bab el-Mandeb, Gulf of Aden,
fits the Saudi and Emirati strategies in Yemen: it (also) targets weapons
smuggling, thus sending a message to the Houthis and Iran.”
Eleonora
Ardemagni, Associate Research
Fellow, ISPI
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The spillover of the Ukraine war into Yemen
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“Yemen already experienced one of the world’s worst
humanitarian crises before the war in Ukraine. When I visited the country
recently, I saw the fallout from prolonged conflict, a defunct economy, and
shortages in humanitarian funding. Families are living off one meal a day.
Mothers are using only flour and cooking oil to feed seven mouths. Men are
cutting wood on the side of the road because they cannot afford to purchase
fuel. Since Yemen is reliant on Ukraine and its neighbours for 40% of its wheat
supply, the war in Ukraine will create a supply problem. But the reality is
these resources were already out of reach for most Yemeni families because they
could not afford the high prices of goods. Now, however, supply shortages of
food staples and fertilizers mean meals are even further out of reach, with the
future of agricultural harvests growing unpredictable. Overall, solidarity and
support for Ukraine will come at a cost to Yemen and other urgent humanitarian
crises around the world.”
Yasmine
Faruki, Senior Policy Advisor, Mercy Corps
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ISPI - Italian Institute for International Political Studies Subscribe to the MED Newsletter
MED – MEDITERRANEAN DIALOGUES is the annual high-level
initiative promoted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation and ISPI (Italian Institute for International
Political Studies) in Rome with the aim to rethink traditional approaches to
the area complementing analyses of current challenges with new ideas and
suggestions and to draft a new “positive agenda”, addressing shared
challenges at both the regional and the international level. The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and ISPI.
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ispi.segreteria@ispionline.it
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