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ISRAEL: BENNETT BETWEEN THE HAMMER AND THE ANVIL |
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The MED This Week newsletter provides expert
analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA
region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight
on future scenarios. Today, we turn the spotlight on Israel, focusing on the
recent spike in terror attacks and the government crisis.
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Israel is experiencing one of its deadliest wave
of violence in years. On April 7th, an attack in central Tel
Aviv claimed the lives of three people and wounded some ten others. The
shooting was the latest in a series of lethal
aggressions across Israel, carried out since March 22nd by both Arab
citizens of Israel and Palestinians from the West Bank. Many factors appear to
have contributed to such a surge of violence. The legitimation crisis of the
Palestinian Authority and the recent developments in the process of Arab
normalisation with Israel are part of the broader background. Beyond
their deadly outcomes, the episodes do not fit easily within a common
narrative.
Even though all the perpetrators came from difficult socio-economic backgrounds
marked by institutionalised discrimination, it seems that the assaults were organised
by “lone wolves”. Overall, this deterioration in public security
comes during a turbulent period for Israel’s
politics. On the eve of the Tel Aviv shooting, the Bennett-Lapid government
lost its majority at the Knesset. In an unexpected move, Idit Salman, a senior
lawmaker from Bennett’s Yamina party, announced her resignation from the
coalition. Salman’s decision was but the ultimate evidence of the
pitfalls of the heterogeneous governing group that was formed to put an
end to the premiership of Benjamin Netanyahu. While in the past year the
Bennett-Lapid government has been able to reach some results at both the
domestic and international levels, its mixed composition has always represented
its main Achilles’ heel. Left with no majority, the executive might survive
with the external support of some opposition members. Yet, the possibility of
early elections might not be so unlikely.
The experts of the ISPI MED network react to the
political crisis and the security challenges Israel is currently facing.
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The broader context behind the violent surge
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“Recent Palestinian attacks in Israel appear individually motivated, without any top-down command, despite some links to ISIS and Fatah’s Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. Nor is there any apparent connection between the attackers who come from different Palestinian communities: A Bedouin from Israel’s Negev, two Israeli citizens from Umm al-Fahm, and two Palestinians from the West Bank town of Jenin. However, these individuals were undoubtedly shaped by similar local dynamics, from poor socio-economic prospects to institutionalised discrimination and violence by the State of Israel (including Israeli settlers in the West Bank). This comes amidst growing national anger at the disappearance of any prospect for ending Israel’s decades-long occupation of Palestinian territory and rising religious emotions caused by Israeli actions in Jerusalem. Consequently, a majority of Palestinians now view armed confrontation as the best means of national liberation. A heavy-handed security response by Israel will do little to alter these drivers of violence.”
Hugh Lovatt, Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign
Relations (ECFR)
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The post-Oslo PLO: “No longer a force in regional politics"
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“At the very least, the Naqab Meeting between
Lapid and the Foreign Ministers of Bahrain, Egypt, Morocco, and the UAE
signalled to the Palestinians that they are not considered relevant by the
regional players that attended. Indeed, not only were Palestinians not invited
to participate - unsurprising given their objection to normalization - but
their issues were not even discussed beyond a single comment from the Egyptian
delegation, a major departure from decades of prioritizing the Palestinian
cause in regional venues.
This growing irrelevance is partially the
result of the PLO/PA gradually ceding, even squandering, its regional leverage
over many years while becoming over-reliant on the peace process to deliver it
a state. As a result of many factors, the post-Oslo PLO is simply no longer a
force in regional politics.
While not directly connected to the Naqab
Meeting, the recent violence in Palestine-Israel is likely the result of
exasperation with the current state of affairs, including Arab-Israel
normalization, but more importantly, ongoing Israeli repression, forcible
expulsions, and colonization without any end in sight."
Omar H. Rahman, Fellow, Middle East Council on Global Affairs
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"The
countdown is on for early elections"
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“The
security deterioration in Israel is arriving at a delicate timing. In its first
nine months, the Israeli government enjoyed a relative political calm and
effectively dealt with multiple domestic and foreign affairs. The recent
decision by MK Idit Silman to resign from the coalition marks a change of
direction. The coalition lost its majority in parliament. While the government
is not toppled and Netanyahu does not have an alternative government to form,
the countdown is on for early elections. Prospects for long-term political
stability, including the implementation of the Lapid-Bennett rotation
agreement, seem slim now. The resumption of terror attacks puts pressure on
Bennett, especially from the right-wing, in both the coalition and opposition,
to respond militarily and adopt more right-wing policies. However, such
responses might lead to unwanted Israeli-Palestinian escalation and increased
divides within the coalition. The government should respond in the same
professional and sensitive manner that helped it effectively address major
challenges in recent months. It should not opt for escalation but rather find
smart security solutions and leverage the new regional diplomatic reality in
which Arab and Muslim leaders (including in the Palestinian Authority) clearly
condemn the recent attacks and are ready to engage with the Israeli leadership.”
Nimrod Goren, Ph.D, President and Founder, The Israeli
Institute for Regional Foreign Policies (Mitvim
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The
Bennett-Lapid Government: A clay-footed giant?
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“President Saied's decision to
dissolve the Parliament risks worsening Tunisia's already difficult political
and socio-economic situation. The country is already dealing with the most
severe economic crisis in recent years, aggravated by the rise in food and
energy prices. Even more dramatically, the Ukraine war threatens Tunisia’s wheat
supply as approximately half of it is imported from Russia and Ukraine. Amid
negotiations with the International Monetary Fund over an economic aid package,
Saied’s latest move represents a hazard the country cannot afford. This
authoritarian drift could alienate his popular support base and, above all,
assistance from the West, already ruffled by Tunisia's moderate diplomatic
response to the Russian invasion. The crisis in Ukraine could be the straw that
breaks the extremely fragile Tunisian camel's back while dark clouds loom on
the horizon.”
Ugo Tramballi, Senior Advisor, ISPI
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Will
Bibi benefit sufficiently from Bennett's troubles?
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“The
resignation of Idit Silman left the government of Naftali Bennett without a
majority and Benjamin Netanyahu still with only fifty-four seats, not allowing
him to flip the balance of the current Knesset in his favour. The two blocks
appear solid in their positions, leaving no room for a substantial shift of
balance. Also, in the more probable case of early elections, the prospects for
Netanyahu to become Prime Minister again would not significantly change.
In this political
scenario, the turmoil of the recent wave of terror attacks is likely to incite
momentum in Netanyahu’s attempt to overturn the government it is increasingly
desperate to obtain, also in light of his judicial straits. By holding
Bennett responsible for the security situation, Netanyahu is reinforcing a
well-known fact in Israel: a government which is not perceived as
hard-core right-wing, will constantly be undermined in the public eye when
facing a wave of terrorism."
Anna Maria Bagaini, Visiting Research Fellow, University of
Nottingham
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ISPI - Italian Institute for International Political Studies Subscribe to the MED Newsletter
MED – MEDITERRANEAN DIALOGUES is the annual high-level
initiative promoted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation and ISPI (Italian Institute for International
Political Studies) in Rome with the aim to rethink traditional approaches to
the area complementing analyses of current challenges with new ideas and
suggestions and to draft a new “positive agenda”, addressing shared
challenges at both the regional and the international level. The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and ISPI.
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