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Instant reactions, delivered to your inbox
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THE GULF AND CHINA: A BROADENING PARTNERSHIP?
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The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis
and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region,
bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on future
scenarios. Today, we focus on the recent visits of Gulf representatives to
China, in the attempt to enhance their respective bilateral relations with
Beijing. At the core of this recent diplomatic activism, there are several
vital economic and security issues, starting with the rising concerns over the
stability of Central Asia and the ongoing negotiations in Vienna over the JCPOA.
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On January 10th, Foreign Ministers from
Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, and the Secretary-General of the Gulf
Cooperation Council (GCC), arrived in China for a five-day visit to deepen
their relations with Beijing. Here, the Gulf monarchies’ representatives are holding
a series of bilateral meetings with their Chinese counterpart, Wang Yi, aimed
at consolidating their bilateral partnerships in numerous fields. On the one
hand, GCC states are seeking closer ties with Beijing, mainly to diversify
their oil-dependent economies and encourage Chinese investments in the region.
In this framework, the GCC’s unprecedented visit will likely pave the way
for practical progress in negotiating a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) between
the two sides, first tabled in 2004 and reopened last year during Wang Yi’s
tour in the Gulf. On the other hand, China has sought to bolster its ties with
GCC states, representing Beijing’s most significant trade partners and energy
suppliers in the Middle East. In parallel with the GCC’s official tour, Iranian
Foreign Minister, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian, is set to visit China on January
14th. The growing concerns over Central Asia are likely to be among the
topics covered in the discussions the Iranian Foreign Minister will have in
Beijing. Over the past years, China has reportedly bought an increasing
volume of Iranian oil in spite of US sanctions. Furthermore, China has been
supporting the talks currently ongoing in Vienna, aiming to revive the 2015
Iranian nuclear deal. Overall, this first-of-its-kind diplomatic activity may also
signal China’s intentions to step up its role in the Middle East region, which
is vital for the country’s strategic interests and an area where the United
States has traditionally been a dominant power. At the same time, it manifests
how Gulf-China relations are nowadays going beyond economic ties.
Experts from the ISPI MED network
react to the deepening ties between GCC countries and China.
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China
is building a comprehensive strategic partnership with the Gulf
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“The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC)
high-level delegation tour of China represents Beijing's increasing attention to
boosting regional trade and security cooperation. The key drivers of China's
policy towards the Gulf are not only rooted in the exploitation of energy
resources. The meeting represents a renewed role for a comprehensive strategic
partnership between Beijing and GCC to promote security and stability in the
Middle East. Also, China and Gulf states' cooperation has been accelerated by
the Gulf monarchies’ diversification from being economies solely based on
hydrocarbons towards a high-tech development and Beijing's offer of
comprehensive digital infrastructures. The US pivot to the Indo-Pacific
amplified the Gulf monarchies’ perception of abandonment from Washington, and
Beijing is rapidly filling the gap. At the same time as China's GCC tour, in
fact, Syria joined the Belt and Road Initiative, and the Iranian Foreign
Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahain is expected in Beijing in the coming days.”
Alessandro Arduino,
Principal Research Fellow, Middle East Institute, National University of
Singapore
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The GCC in
Beijing: a cohesive step towards China?
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“Foreign ministers from Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman and Bahrain along
with the Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Nayef bin
Falah al-Hajrah are in Beijing for a five-day visit. This is interesting
because it is a (mostly) GCC foreign policy cohesive action, something we
haven't seen much of in the last five years. Second, the visit represents those
GCC oil exporters most focused on Chinese buyers, and notably the UAE and Qatar
are not there. The visit follows a Chinese outreach initiative, taking the lead
from Beijing. The challenge for China will be broadening the relationships
outside of energy needs, to strengthen ties to withstand pressure from any
future geopolitical tensions.”
Karen Young, Senior Fellow and Director,
Program on Economics and Energy, MEI
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Building a
partnership that goes beyond the energy sector
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"The recent China-GCC meetings
can be viewed along two broad lines. Firstly, the more the US focuses on
Indo-Pacific to contain China and retreat from the Middle East, the more China
is increasing its role in the latter region and becoming its most significant
global partner. Secondly, in terms of GCC-China relations per se, the recent
meetings can be viewed in terms of: a) China preparing GCC countries for the Iranian
nuclear deal developments (JCPOA is likely to be revived soon); b) Speeding up
the China-GCC Free Trade Agreement for which both sides are enthusiastic
(likely to happen in mid-term, if not the short-term, future); c) Enhancing
cooperation in new booming fields such as green energy, fin-tech, and the like,
which enhance both Chinese interests and GCC countries’ economic
diversification strategies and national visions; and finally: d) Boosting
security, military, and intelligence cooperation with the GCC countries."
Mohammadbagher
Forough, Research Fellow, GIGA; and Research Associate, Clingendael
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Riyadh bets on
parallel partnerships with Washington and Beijing
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“For the Kingdom, Saudi Arabia’s relationship with China has
represented a big opportunity so far, driven by the structural interdependence
between Vision 2030 and the Belt and Road Initiative: energy,
investments, technology, infrastructures and sea lanes. However, from that
moment on, things began to get more complicated than before, due to the
“security node”. In fact, the word “security” widely appears in recent
Saudi-Chinese meetings’ accounts. After years of economic-oriented partnership,
this highlights that a new, post-American geopolitical season in the Gulf has
already become a reality (see the Saudi Arabia-China cooperation on ballistic
missiles production in the kingdom). Saudi Arabia continues to bet on parallel partnerships with Washington and Beijing, hoping to navigate through the regional
fallouts of this systemic rivalry. For Riyadh and the neighbouring monarchies,
this is the only – although perilous – way to preserve their national
interest”.
Eleonora Ardemagni,
Associate Research Fellow, ISPI
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Abu Dhabi: the
great absentee in Beijing
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“The UAE and China have a comprehensive strategic partnership – the
highest form of diplomatic relationship and cooperation that China can offer
other countries. But the absence of the UAE from the Gulf delegation in Beijing
this week may indicate a strategy of hedging as it tries to reduce tensions
with its other main security partner, the US. There have been differences
between the two in recent months, following Washington’s claims that the
Chinese have been building at a military facility at a port near Abu Dhabi,
American opposition towards Huawei’s developing the UAE’s 5G network and the
Emiratis’ decision to cancel a planned purchase of 50 Lockheed F-35 fighter
jets.”
Guy Burton, Adjunct Professor, Vesalius College;
and Visiting Fellow, Sectarianism, Proxies and De-sectarianism Project,
Lancaster University
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The ongoing
recalibration of Sino-Iranian relations
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“The Iranian foreign minister's upcoming visit to Beijing is part of
an ongoing recalibration of the China-Iran relationship. For the past three
years, the China-Iran relationship was strained by Iran's perception that China
was underdelivering on a promised economic partnership, having scaled back both
oil and non-oil trade in the face of U.S. secondary sanctions. China, for its
part, considered Iranian-supported attacks on oil infrastructure and tankers in
Saudi Arabia and the UAE—critical parts of China’s energy supply chain—to be
dangerous provocations. It appears that Iran’s efforts to engage in talks with
its Arab neighbours have helped reduce some of the strain on relations between
Tehran and Beijing, in part by preserving Chinese energy security. Chinese oil
imports from Iran have risen in turn. If this regional dialogue continues and
if the JCPOA can be restored, Iran may finally catch up to its neighbours and begin to see the
fruits of a more functional political and economic relationship with China.”
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj,
CEO, Bourse & Bazaar Foundation; and Visiting Fellow, ECFR
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Biden is becoming more cautious of China
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“The
Biden administration is becoming more circumspect of China as it is deemed the
only competitor able to combine economic, diplomatic, military, and
technological power to challenge an open international system. Chinese support
for major infrastructure projects might be welcome by the US in principle, but
the import of Huawei 5G equipment and armed drones are perceived to be
problematic. Recent analysis from US Central Command (CENTCOM) is that China is
expanding its military presence to secure vital routes of energy and trade. An
alleged Chinese military facility in the UAE highlighted these concerns,
although there was some dispute about its function. The White House was quick
to act because a hybrid model of port operations coupled with military use
could set a precedent in the region and undermine US hegemony. Washington is
responding with enhanced economic and strategic cooperation, such as the new
Quad consisting of the US, India, Israel and the UAE, building on the Abraham
Accords. Greater conditionality is also being introduced on major arms sales to
the UAE such as the F-35.”
Robert Mason,
Non-Resident Fellow, AGSIW; and Fellow, Sectarianism, Proxies and
De-sectarianisation Project, Lancaster University
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ISPI - Italian Institute for International Political Studies Subscribe to the MED Newsletter
MED – MEDITERRANEAN DIALOGUES is the annual high-level
initiative promoted by the Italian Ministry of Foreign Affairs and
International Cooperation and ISPI (Italian Institute for International
Political Studies) in Rome with the aim to rethink traditional approaches to
the area complementing analyses of current challenges with new ideas and
suggestions and to draft a new “positive agenda”, addressing shared
challenges at both the regional and the international level. The opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation and ISPI.
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ispi.segreteria@ispionline.it
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